martes, 14 de abril de 2015

Is Cuba Ready To Capitalize On Warming Relations With U.S.?

APR 13, 2015 @ 4:14 PM 6,476 VIEWS

Is Cuba Ready To Capitalize On Warming Relations With U.S.?
Nathaniel Parish Flannery

While U.S. politicians and businesses have fostered strong relationships
with China and Vietnam, relations with Cuba have remained trapped as a
frozen relic of Cold War policy. Now, Cuban-U.S. relations are starting
to thaw. Speaking at the summit of the Americas in Panama President
Barack Obama said, "The changes I announced to U.S. policy toward Cuba
mark the beginning of a new relationship. It will mean more Americans
traveling to Cuba, more commerce, more potential investment, and most of
all it will mean more opportunities and resources for the Cuban people.
We hope to provide more access to telecommunications and the internet
and the free flow of information. I've called on Congress to lift the
embargo."

Before his meeting with his Cuban counterpart Raul Castro Obama added,
"This is obviously an historic meeting. We are now in a position to move
on a path toward the future."

It is a new era that many Cubans, especially young Cubans born after the
end of the Cold War, are eager to embrace. Over three quarters of Cubans
aged 18-34 are optimistic about their future.


US President Barack Obama shakes hands with Cuba's President Raul Castro
during a meeting on the sidelines of the Summit of the Americas at the
ATLAPA Convention center on April 11, 2015 in Panama City. Photo
by MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images

According to a report from the Washington Post, a recent poll shows
"Cubans are eager for the benefits of increased foreign tourism and want
more access to basic U.S. products rather than luxury goods. More than 6
in 10 expect that Cuba's new relationship with the United States will
change the economic system, and more than 9 in 10 want to end the trade
embargo."

The poll also showed that most Cubans want to see more pharmacies and
supermarkets in their country. Respondents said that they would also
like to travel abroad, open bank accounts, and start businesses.

According to the Washington Post report, "Nearly 8 in 10 [Cuban poll
responsdents] are dissatisfied with the economic system, with one-third
receiving money sent from family or friends abroad. Fifty-eight percent
give negative ratings to Cuba's Communist Party, and 53 percent say they
are dissatisfied with their political system, with half of this group
saying it does not offer enough freedoms."

More than half of all respondents have a negative opinion of Fidel
Castro and Raul Castro has a 47 percent approval rating. President
Obama, on the other hand, has an 80 percent approval rating in Cuba.

Obama's new policies will allow more money to flow from Cuban Americans
to family members on the island. Susan Segal, the CEO of the Americas
Society, a think-tank in New York explained, "That's very important
because it allows Cuban-Americans to invest in family businesses. There
is a very large diaspora of 2 million Cubans living in the United States
that could possibly send money home to invest in different businesses."

Airbnb and Netflix are already doing business in Cuba and companies in
the tourism, technology and telecommunications industries are expected
to explore new investment opportunities.

Ricardo Torres, an analyst from the Cuban Centre for Economic Studies at
the University of Havana, explained "It's virgin territory. That's why
it's so attractive. There are very few foreign companies here. And its
conditions are unique."

Right now Cuba does most of it's trade with Venezuela, and as a trading
partner for the island nation the U.S. ranks behind Canada, Mexico, the
EU, Brazil, and China.

But, even if Cuba fully normalizes relations with the U.S., the island
economy won't become a major market for major companies such as Ford and
Coca-Cola any time soon. With fewer than 12 million residents, Cuba's
population is about a tenth as large as Mexico's, a third of the size of
Peru's, and a fifth of the size of Colombia's. In terms of per capita
GDP, Cuba's is about half as high as Mexico's and a third of the size of
Chile's. Many of Cuba's residents survive on meager salaries and
internet access is still limited and expensive. But, even though its
proximity to the U.S. and unique culture and history will help Cuba
spark some interest from investors, the island nation's transformation
won't be the quick result of a switch to ready-mix market-oriented
economics.

"It's going to take time. Most of what's in the private sector today is
very micro-oriented. It's the micro entrepreneur," Segal explained.

The current round of diplomatic talks are important, but warming
relations aren't likely to quickly translate into material improvements.

According to Geoff Thale, the program director at the Washington Office
on Latin America, "If you're a Cuban living in central Havana, you won't
see improvements in your daily life for some time to come."

Follow me: Twitter: @LatAmLENS and Instagram: @nathanielparish

Source: Is Cuba Ready To Capitalize On Warming Relations With U.S.? -
Forbes -
http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanielparishflannery/2015/04/13/is-cuba-ready-to-capitalize-on-warming-relations-with-u-s/

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