Scholars warn post-Castro Cuba not likely to settle old claims

Scholars warn post-Castro Cuba not likely to settle old claims
By OSKAR GARCIA | Associated Press
12:20 PM EDT, October 5, 2007

OMAHA, Neb. -- Americans looking to recoup Cuban assets seized after
Fidel Castro took power in 1959 likely won't get the billions they hope
to seek after Castro dies, a federally financed study concluded.

The study, released Thursday, said they instead should settle for
development rights and tax breaks that would let them profit from a new
Cuba.

It was commissioned by the U.S. Agency for International Development and
conducted by scholars at Creighton University. They were asked to
consider how Cuba, which has been under communist rule now for nearly a
half-century, might settle long-pending claims after the 81-year-old
Castro dies.

Nearly 6,000 American claims for homes and businesses seized by the
regime have been determined valid by the U.S. Foreign Claims Settlement
Commission. The study values them at about $6 billion in current
dollars, with interest. Many of the claimants are Cuban-Americans who
were Cuban when their property was expropriated.

The study suggests that if Cuba tried to pay the claims back in hard
currency, it would be able to pay only a few cents on the dollar.
Instead, the study suggests settling claims in ways that will foster
Cuba's growth, by giving claimants opportunities to flourish with the
island nation.

``The worst possible outcome would be if the claims process were
contributing to economic misery on the island once there was a real
change,'' said Patrick Borchers, the team leader and vice president for
academic affairs for Creighton.

The ailing Castro announced in July last year that he had undergone
emergency intestinal surgery and was ceding power to his younger
brother, Raul.

The study said a quick transition to democracy is unlikely, but many
experts believe a slow transition to a socialist government could
eventually take place after Raul Castro's rule ends.

Miami businessman Teo Babun's family lost a cement plant, mining
properties and other interests in Cuba in 1960 and he now heads a
consulting group seeking business opportunities in a new Cuba. He
praised the Creighton study's effort but said predicting Cuba's future
is a bold move.

``That's pretty darn gutsy for a bunch of lawyers to be predicting _
that's the job of the U.S. State Department,'' said Babun. Spokeswoman
Linda Hartley of the U.S. State Department would not comment on Cuba's
future, saying it was complicated and the department would not comment
on a hypothetical situation.

A request for comment from the Cuban government's International Press
Center in Havana was not immediately returned Thursday afternoon.

Cuba is obligated by international law to compensate foreign owners of
seized property, and settling American claims would be essential to
rebuilding tie between the two countries. There are also many claims
pending over property seized from Cubans who went into exile after 1959,
including Cuban-Americans.

Cuba nationalized other foreign companies in the 1960 and has already
signed compensation agreements with some nations, including Switzerland,
France, Great Britain and Mexico.

On the Net:

U.S. Agency for International Development: http://www.usaid.gov/

U.S. State Department: http://www.state.gov/

Creighton University: http://www.creighton.edu/

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/cuba/sfl-105postcastrocuba,0,6399950.story