Developments in Cuba

Developments in Cuba

Author: Julia E. Sweig, Nelson and David Rockefeller Senior Fellow for

Latin America Studies and Director for Latin America Studies

June 19, 2013

Folha de Sao Paulo



Originally published in Portuguese on Folha de Sao Paulo:



In 2010 I participated in a conversation with Fidel Castro, when, in

reply to a question about whether Cuba was still 'exporting' its 'model'

to Latin America, he inadvertently caused an international media

firestorm by replying—"the Cuban model doesn't even work for us

anymore." A statement of the obvious for most Cubans, and an affirmation

that real change was afoot.



Here are some still undigested takeaways from conversations with dozens

of Cubans in and out of government about how they see that change.



1-) The death of Hugo Chavez and uncertainty in Venezuela reinforces a

pre-existing rationale and time frame for Cuba to deepen trade,

investment, and diplomatic ties with a variety of partners. Brazil is a

prime example. Add the rest of Latin America, China, Russia, Angola, the

EU and eventually the United States to that strategy.



2-) Remittances and material support from Cubans in the diaspora play a

growing role in the micro-economy of the island, and help launch small

family businesses. But Cubans trying to prosper in the private sector

are still waiting for expanded access to bank credit and for wholesale

markets to open, and for tax rates to stabilize. That may sound like a

bland statement, but it suggests that major social change is afoot.



3-) The major macroeconomic step, eliminating the dual currency, will be

painful and necessary. The state can't afford to subsidize everything

for everyone and no longer does so. But substantially cutting subsidies

and devaluing the currency at the same time would amount to more shock

therapy than the society can take at this stage.



4-) The digital age is finally arriving. This month's opening of

internet cafes is the leading edge of a policy decision to substantially

increase investment in and access to the digital infrastructure the rest

of us now take for granted. Cubans are already crazy about social

media—and I'm not just talking about Brazil's idol Yoani Sanchez. Watch

this space: it is likely to grow.



5-) Its still unclear how the official Cuban press will adapt. Next

month a congress of journalists will debate their guild's future.

Hopefully we will see more space for the values of transparency and

accountability promoted elsewhere by the Raul Castro government. But for

an idea of the real debates in Cuba, see www.espaciolaical.org or

www.temas.cult.cu.



6-) Speaking of transparency, a big push to penalize corruption is now

underway. Foreign companies are on notice to play by the rules. Soon the

corruption on which the black market relies will come under legal

scrutiny. Cubans seem to understand that the rule of law is essential to

a well functioning market economy and more foreign investment and that

cleaning up corruption is a necessary precondition.



7-) Political parties? Not yet, but no longer inconceivable.



8-) Also in the category of no longer inconceivable: a woman president.



Source: "Developments in Cuba - Council on Foreign Relations" -

http://www.cfr.org/cuba/developments-cuba/p30961