Forecasters predict 4 to 7 hurricanes this season

Posted on Thursday, 05.21.09
Forecasters predict 4 to 7 hurricanes this season
BY TRENTON DANIEL
tdaniel@MiamiHerald.com

Top federal weather forecasters on Thursday announced that the tropics
are likely to experience an active storm season -- one that could be
almost as active as last year's.

They predict the season will see nine to 14 named storms, with four to
seven of them becoming full-fledged hurricanes. One to three of those
will be major hurricanes, reaching Category 3, 4 and 5 designations.

Officials with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and
others made their forecast public at a news conference held at the
Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in northern Virginia.

''Our plan today is simple: We want the public to be ready for this
year's season,'' Commerce Secretary Gary Locke told reporters. ``We
cannot prevent hurricanes, but we can prepare.''

Locke was accompanied by NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco and Bill
Read, NOAA's National Hurricane Center director, along with a host of
other federal officials.

Government forecasters were right on the mark with their 2008
predictions -- a very active hurricane season. The numbers: 16 named
storms, eight hurricanes, five of them major.

Scientists had projected that the 2008 season would bring 12 to 16 named
storms that would grow into six to nine hurricanes, two to five of which
would be Category 3 or stronger.

Florida was spared the worst of last year's hurricane season. Only
Tropical Storm Fay struck the region hard.

That was not the case for our Caribbean neighbors. Cuba and Haiti got
pounded by a succession of major hurricanes and storms, resulting in
heavy damage and many lost lives.

The six-month hurricane season begins June 1. The outlook is revised in
early August, just before the height of the hurricane season.

Gerry Bell, NOAA's lead seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecaster, has said
the gradual warming of the Atlantic Ocean, combined with an active
tropical era of storms that began in 1995, will likely mean busy
hurricane seasons in the future.

Pacific Ocean conditions also can have an impact on Atlantic and
Caribbean hurricanes. Currently, conditions are neutral for warming or
cooling of the Pacific sea surface. If an El Niño warming were to
develop, that would have the effect of reducing Atlantic hurricanes.

NOAA officials said the forecast will be updated in early August,
normally the start of the busiest part of hurricane season.

Forecasters give a tropical storm a name when wind speeds reach 39 mph
(63 kph) and upgrade it to a hurricane when sustained winds reach 74 mph
(120 kph). Major hurricanes have winds of more than 111 mph (179 kph).
The same type of storm is known as a typhoon or tropical cyclone in
other parts of the world.

The first storm of this year in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf of
Mexico will be Ana, followed by Bill, Claudette and Danny.

Researchers at North Carolina State University say between 11 and 14
storms will develop in the Atlantic and 6 to 8 of them will become
hurricanes. At Colorado State University, researchers forecast 12 named
storms, including 6 hurricanes.

Forecasters predict 4 to 7 hurricanes this season - Breaking News -
MiamiHerald.com (22 May 2009)

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/breaking-news/story/1058884.html