Hardships increase, not ease

Posted on Monday, 07.06.09
CUBA
Hardships increase, not ease
BY JAIME SUCHLICKI
jsuchlicki@miami.edu

Despite mounting economic difficulties, the Cuban government is not
likely to open up Cuba's economy or to offer meaningful concessions for
normalization of relations with the United States.

The Castro brothers believe that increasing hardships will not produce
an internal rebellion. Gen. Raúl Castro recently reduced the
availability of food that Cubans receive through ration cards. If there
was concern for popular unrest, this type of measure would have not been
introduced.

Political and economic centralization and control, along with
ideological rigidity, are the chosen policies to guarantee a successful
succession and to prevent Cuba's transformation into a democratic,
market economy.

Elites unsure

Major concessions would mean a rejection of one of Fidel Castro's main
legacies: anti-Americanism. It may create uncertainty among the elites
that govern Cuba leading to friction and factionalism. The Cuban
population also could see this as an opportunity for mobilization
demanding faster reforms. It could also be seen as a weakening of Cuba's
anti-American alliances with radical regimes in Latin America, Iran and
Syria and Cuba's defection from the anti-imperialist front.

U.S. recognition may mean a victory for Raúl and the legitimization of
his military regime.

Yet it is a small price when compared to the uncertainties that a
Cuba-U.S. relationship may produce internally and externally among
Cuba's allies.

From Cuba's point of view, the United States has little to offer:
American tourists, whom Raúl doesn't need to survive; American
investments, which he fears may subvert his highly centralized and
controlled economy; and products that he can buy cheaper from other
countries. The United States does not have, furthermore, the ability to
provide Cuba with the petroleum that Venezuela is sending with little or
no payment. Aid from Venezuela, Iran, Russia and China, furthermore, is
provided with no conditions. These regimes demand little from Cuba.

`Correlation of forces'

The periodic public statements that Raúl has made about wanting
negotiations with the U.S. government are politically motivated and
directed at audiences in this country and Europe. In particular, Raúl
believes that the ''correlation of forces'' is such that Congress may
lift the travel ban and end the embargo unilaterally, without Cuba
having to make any concessions.

Serious overtures for negotiations are usually not issued from the
plaza. They are carried out through normal diplomatic avenues open to
the Cubans.

These avenues have never been closed, as evidenced by the migration
accord and the anti-hijacking agreement between the U.S. and Cuban
governments. In the past, both Democratic and Republican administrations
have had conversations with Cuban officials and have made serious
overtures for normalization, only to be rebuffed.

Real concessions

The issue is not about negotiations or talking. There has to be a
willingness on the part of the Cuban leadership to offer real
concessions -- in the area of human rights and political and economic
openings as well as cooperation on anti-terrorism and drug interdiction
-- in exchange for an alteration in U.S. policies. The United States
does not drop major policies without a substantial quid pro quo. Only
when Raúl is willing to deal -- not only with the United States, but,
more important, with the Cuban people -- should he expect a reciprocal
change in U.S. policies.

Jaime Suchlicki is director of the University of Miami's Institute for
Cuban and Cuban-American studies.

Hardships increase, not ease - Other Views - MiamiHerald.com (6 July 2009)
http://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/other-views/story/1128739.html