Transition to Dictatorship Rhythm

Transition to Dictatorship Rhythm / Jorge Olivera Castillo

Posted on March 4, 2014



HAVANA, Cuba, March — Latin America and now the European Union approach

the Cuban dictatorship without great demands. Respect for fundamental

rights, as a requisite for closer relations with Havana passes to a more

distant plane than previously.



The priority is to guarantee the survival of the regime as an assurance

of political stability within the Island, and maybe to manage a soft

landing towards some form of less authoritarian government. It is risky,

at the very least, to say that the end point of this journey that is

barely beginning is democracy with all its attributes.



Single-party socialism is not going to disappear from Cuba because of a

civilian-military revolution. Neither does it appear that its end is

associated with a negotiating table formed by people of the current

regime, the Catholic Church and the opposition groups. If history grants

the possibility of such a scenario, it would settle for when the heirs

of the gerontocracy assume control at a time impossible to determine.



Whoever says to the contrary is, as they say, lost in the weeds. The

weakness of the opposition, in a social climate where anarchy stopped

being exceptional some time ago, is a reality that counts when the time

comes to define policies. Of course they are not the only motivations,

but there is no doubt that they have contributed to things flowing in

favor of conservative pragmatism.



To this one would have to add the little importance of our country in

the geopolitical order. Without great economic attractions or strategic

relevance for the centers of world power, the topic of Cuba dissolves

between indifference and the castlings of very specific interest.

Nothing of commitments with respect to a political evolution that

overcomes single party rule and the impossibility of exercising

fundamental rights without conditions. That would come associated with

the development of economic openness.



The only government that maintains a policy of confrontation is the

United States, although of little benefit for advancing the

pro-democracy agenda. The embargo increasingly loses effectiveness

following a moderating trend that includes important sectors linked to

the politics and economy of this nation.



At times it seems that the incidents of abuse perpetrated by the regime

fall on deaf ears. Except for a few non-governmental organizations, the

majority of governments remain impassive in the face of statistics about

arbitrary arrests, acts of repudiation and prison sentences for

political reasons.



Resignation would not be a good option facing the sequence of

irrefutable facts, but also one has to be careful about romantic visions.



A deep reflection about the circumstances is necessary. The opposition

and the members of alternative civil society that do not do it will fall

by the wayside. One must insist on efforts to be more creative and to

eliminate the recurrence of old errors that continue burdening the

pro-democratic plans.



Cubanet, March 3, 2014, Jorge Olivera Castillo



oliverajorge75@yahoo.com



Translated by mlk



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