Cuba's fertility rate less for population replacement.

Cuba's fertility rate less for population replacement.
By Larry Moonze in Havana, Cuba
Tue 10 May 2011, 21:30 CAT

The Cuban National Bureau of Statistics and Information has said the
country's overall fertility rate is less than what is needed for
population replacement.

Bureau director for centre for population and development studies Juan
Carlos Alfonso Fraga said by 2030 Cubans aged 60 years and above would
account for approximately 31 per cent of the total population.

Alfonso in his assessment published in the official daily Granma said
the demographic changes in Cuba over recent decades led in 2009 to the
decision to amend the Social Security Act whereby the government
increased the retirement age to 65 for men and 60 for women.

He said the national reality was characterized by increasingly greater
life expectancy and low birth rate which phenomena was typical of
developed nations.

"Since 1978 the overall fertility rate, which represents the average
number of children per woman, is less than needed to allow for
population replacement and therein lays the main cause of aging in Cuban
society without a doubt one of the most significant challenges the
nation must face," Alfonso said.

"The combination of these factors has led to the sustained growth in the
number of people 60 years of age and over.

This group at the end of 2010 numbered 1,996,632 representing 17.8 per
cent of the Cuban population while the proportion of the population
within the 0 to 14 years of age category numbering 1,946,634 was for the
first time lower than those in the so-called third age."

The demographic forecasts indicate that the only age group expected to
increase over the coming decades was precisely that of citizens 60 years
of age and above.

By 2030 the sexagenarians would represent approximately 31 per cent of
the total population ranking Cuba among the "oldest countries
worldwide." That is a country with old citizens.

Alfonso said if retirement age had not been raised by 2015 a greater
number of people would be leaving the workforce than those entering it.

"Such a scenario would break the necessary balance that must exist
between the number of people working and those enjoying their retirement
and pensions significantly increasing state social security
expenditures," he said.

"At the same time the country would have less productive capacity, with
fewer workers to produce the goods required by society."

Alfonso said with the amendments to the law that imbalance would not
take place until approximately 2020 while ensuring the presence of
nearly 800,000 more people of working age by that year.

He said just as observed by President Raul Castro in July 2008
demographics represented a problem which could not be resolved within a
short period time.
Life expectancy in Cuba stands at an average of 78 years for both genders.

The population decreased slightly in four of the last five years (2006,
2007, 2008 and 2010), as the country reached its highest population to
date in 2005 to stand at 11,243,836.

As the demographic picture indicates, Cuba should continue to experience
periods of very low population growth interspersed with decreases.

"It is highly unlikely that the population will ever reach twelve
million people," said Alfonso. "Given the progressive aging of society
it is essential that policies be designed responding to the reality of a
population in which the number of elderly will continue to grow."

The population of Cuba in 2006 stood at 11,239,043 and in 2010 at
11,241,161. In 1985 the percentage of those aged 60 years and above was
11.3 per cent of the entire population and in 2010 it stood at 17.8 per
cent.

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