Bloodied, but unbowed

Cuba
Bloodied, but unbowed
Sep 18th 2008
From The Economist print edition
Desperate for international aid, hurricane-torn Cuba turns down any
relief from its old foe, the United States

"NEVER in the history of Cuba have we had a case like this," President
Raúl Castro lamented after two powerful hurricanes, barely a week apart,
struck the island, severely damaging crops and leaving some 200,000
homeless. Miraculously, Havana, the capital, was left virtually
unscathed, as were the main tourist resorts, the oil industry and nickel
mining. But with estimated losses of $5 billion, one of the world's last
communist regimes is facing a daunting task.

The enormous damage sustained to the island's food supplies, housing and
electricity grid raises big questions about Cuba's ability to get by
without massive international aid. Two of the island's most valuable
export crops, citrus and tobacco, suffered big losses. Luckily, the
tobacco harvest was already in, but some 3,000 curing sheds where the
leaves are stored were damaged. Almost half the sugarcane fields were
flattened. The coffee harvest in the east has also been badly affected.

The government has admitted that it cannot cope alone. "It is impossible
to solve the magnitude of the catastrophe with the resources available,"
said Carlos Lezcano, director of the National Institute of State
Reserves. "The reserves are being tested. We shall have to prioritise."

Hurricanes Gustav and Ike could increase pressure on Raúl Castro to
accelerate reforms to loosen the island's centrally-controlled economy,
much as his brother, Fidel, was forced to do in the early 1990s after
the collapse of Cuba's subsidised trade with the Soviet Union. Back
then, reforms briefly opened the economy up to private enterprise, but
Fidel Castro slammed the door shut again once the economy had recovered.

Since his brother fell ill in July 2006, Raúl has stressed the urgent
need for Cuba to raise its domestic agricultural production to
substitute for increasingly expensive food imports. To that end, he has
introduced measures to redistribute idle land and allow farmers more
autonomy. After years of decline, the agricultural sector had begun to
show signs of modest recovery, with output up 5.5% last year. Citrus
production rose 20%, having fallen by 41% over the previous three years.
Sugar cane was also making a comeback.

In the aftermath of the storms, Cuba's main allies leapt to the rescue.
Russia sent four large cargo planes carrying 200 tonnes of relief
supplies. Brazil and Spain sent smaller shipments. Venezuela is expected
to make a big contribution, though details are not yet known.

But not even hurricanes of this ferocity could break down the lack of
trust between Cuba and its old foe, the United States. Instead, the two
have plunged into yet another round of political argy-bargy. The Bush
administration offered Cuba $100,000 in immediate relief aid, later
raised to $5m, but Mr Castro turned it down, demanding instead that
America lift its trade embargo to enable it to buy urgently needed
reconstruction materials. (In neighbouring Haiti by contrast, where the
storm damage was worse, the United States promptly dispatched a
helicopter-laden warship to help relief efforts, as well as pledging
$19.5m in aid.)

In Havana, food markets are already running out of supplies and prices
have shot up. Although some Miami-based Cubans may be eagerly
anticipating anti-government protests, analysts do not consider this is
on the cards—unless the government bungles the relief effort. "It's
rather unlikely that sweating and starving Cubans go rioting in the
streets, even less so against a government that has been effective in
disaster preparation and response," said Johannes Werner, editor of Cuba
Trade and Investment News. "Cubans have a track record of coming out
stronger in far worse situations," he noted.

http://www.economist.com/world/americas/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12262213