Visiting a post-Castro Cuba

Travel Notes
Visiting a post-Castro Cuba
Travel Notes By Carolyn Ali
Publish Date: March 1, 2007

Most people planning a trip to Cuba these days can't help but consider
the Fidel factor. In power since 1959, Fidel Castro defines the nation,
but his health has been widely reported to be in decline. His failure to
make an anticipated appearance at his 80th-birthday celebrations in
December confirmed the worst. But while Miami's Cuban community is
gearing up to party when the official announcement of his death comes,
travellers to Cuba are praying that it doesn't happen during their
vacation—which it very well might.

On December 14, then–U.S. director of national intelligence John
Negroponte told the Washington Post that Castro's death would take place
"not much longer…months, not years" in the future. The paper reported
that after his July 2006 surgery for an intestinal disorder, his brother
Raúl Castro assumed his duties, even as Cuban authorities insisted that
Fidel would return to office.

Uncertainty over Fidel's health contributed to a four-percent decline in
tourist numbers last year, says Christopher Baker. The author of Moon
Handbooks Cuba (Avalon Travel Publishing, $30.95), which has recently
been published in its fourth edition, is in Vancouver March 1 for a
sold-out talk and slide show on Cuba. From his home in California, Baker
tells the Straight that he doesn't think unrest will follow Fidel's
death, since he believes the political transition has already taken place.

"Raúl has taken charge of Cuba. There's no doubt that he's leading a
post-Fidel government right now," Baker says. The author of five books
on Cuba has been visiting the country for 30 years, most recently in
December. "The mood on the street is business as usual," he says. "I
think most people are expecting that when he [Fidel] dies or they
announce his death that not much is really going to change."

So the island isn't ripe for revolution? "Washington may like to think
that the Cuban people are ready to get up and overthrow any Raúl Castro
government," Baker says. "It's just not reality. It's not going to
happen. That mood doesn't exist. The vast, vast majority [of Cubans] are
resigned to seeing how things work out under Raúl. I don't see any signs
whatsoever that there's going to be major unrest."

Baker acknowledges that it's in his own best interest to promote Cuban
tourism. However, he also points out that a Raúl Castro government won't
improve the tourism industry's "weak links". "The service continues to
be really bad," he says. "The management of these [Cuba's] hotels is
absolutely pitiful…complaints never get addressed." Food in most areas
of the country remains "very mediocre". "The Cuban economy just
structurally cannot address issues of service and food. That's one of
the defects of the Communist system."

Baker also notes that since the government revalued the currency in
2005, it's become 10 percent more expensive to visit. "Cuba is no longer
the bargain it was," he says.

That said, the potential for an influx of American tourists post-Fidel
is already prompting more demanding standards. "The real question is
what's going to happen when the U.S. lifts travel restrictions," Baker
says. He believes there's momentum in the Democrat-controlled Congress
to do so, and that a Democratic president would seal the deal. If that
happens, Baker says, "studies suggest that one million U.S. citizens
will go to Cuba that first year, after the lifting of travel
restrictions." With two million tourists currently visiting Cuba each
year, "The impact is going to be absolutely immense for the Cuban
economy and social structure."

http://www.straight.com/article-72940/visiting-a-post-castro-cuba